Saturday, February 11, 2012

Peak Oil - No need to worry

My main problem with the Peak Oil theory is that it seem to look at the demand as too inelastic in terms of the price, and the supply as far too fixed.  There are already several known competitors to oil - the closest being coal and natural gas -with nuclear and renewables threatening in the background.  A shortage of oil would quickly encourage a shift towards other energy sources, perhaps with electric drive technology as the adapter/enabler.  The supply of oil is also a variable to consider, with fields deemed to expensive today, being far more interesting with higher prices - and new technology.  There are also a number of ways to produce oils - with bio-fuel and synfuel as examples.  The following is a poem I have written - in Norwegian:

 Peak Oil - det er jo bare tull.
La smørja ligge - vi fyrer heller med kull.

Skip og kraftverk - last opp med det tørre gull.
Bil og trikk - lad opp din elektronikk.

Fly og helikopter - fyll opp med mais og cellulose.
Vær litt frempå - i havn må vi toriumkraft lose.

Slapp av kineser og amerikaner - griseriet i 5 dollar fatet ender.
Offshoreinstallasjoner blir nyttige - bosted for einstøing og hekkende ender.